Evangelization Statistics Today and the 10/40 Window Unreached People Group Movement: Focus on the Lausanne Movement

Hun Lee

Head of the Asia Minor Studies Association

Introduction 

In September 2024, the 4th Lausanne Conference was held in South Korea (Seoul-Incheon). This marked 14 years since the 3rd Lausanne Conference in Cape Town, South Africa, in 2010. Over this period, missionary organizations leading global missions with the worldwide Church have faced numerous significant challenges as they entered 2024. Just recently, in 2019, the global Church had to resist unprecedented worldwide suppression during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simultaneously, the rapid spread of gender ideology across all societal sectors is fundamentally dismantling the ethical foundation established by the Creator and the authority of Scripture.

In this context, the 4th Lausanne Conference presented the "State of the Great Commission Report." This article seeks to revisit the Unreached People Group (UPG) movement within the trajectory of the Lausanne Conferences, shedding light on the unfinished task of fulfilling the Great Commission over the past 50 years. Additionally, it aims to highlight the direction the global Church should take to participate in the redemptive work God is carrying out in the world.

1. Understanding the Situation of Unreached People Groups (UPGs)

At the 1st Lausanne Conference, missiologist Ralph Winter, invited by Billy Graham, delivered a keynote address titled "The Highest Priority: Cross-Cultural Evangelism." His presentation challenged the question, “Where is the true frontier of the Gospel?” and provided an answer that served as a powerful compass for global missions over the next half-century.

Winter's insights overturned prevailing Western perceptions, which believed, “There are few geographic regions we have not reached,” and assumptions by churches and mission agencies that evangelism in most areas was nearly complete. He argued that the ultimate frontier of missions lay not in geographical proximity but in reaching people groups across linguistic and cultural barriers—those without access to the Gospel.

Highlighting the priority of frontier missions, Winter cited examples from Pakistan and South India, noting that established churches in these regions, such as the "Church of Pakistan" or the "Church of South India," did not necessarily reflect the evangelization of those countries. These churches often did not engage with the remaining 95% of the population groups within their nations. Winter revealed that four out of five people globally had never heard the Gospel in their native language, emphasizing the need for cross-cultural missions to unreached peoples.

Winter’s address introduced the paradigm of Unreached People Groups (UPGs) to the global Church, presenting the Great Commission’s ultimate goal—"making disciples of all nations (ethne)"—from a clear and strategic perspective. He also drew from Genesis 12, reminding participants of God’s covenant to bless “all peoples,” demonstrating the continuous redemptive work of the triune God from both the Old and New Testaments. This shifted the focus from national-level missions to the mission of blessing “all peoples,” establishing UPG missions as a core strategy for fulfilling the Great Commission.

The 2nd Lausanne Conference (1989) reinforced this direction as various evangelistic movements emerged, anticipating the completion of global evangelization by the year 2000. Initiatives like the Adopt-A-People Movement allowed local churches to directly or indirectly participate in frontier missions. Statistical and strategic tools like the Joshua Project have since provided critical analyses of UPG status and evangelization efforts. Even the 2024 "State of the Great Commission Report" from the 4th Lausanne Conference continues to reference Joshua Project data.

The Joshua Project categorizes the world's people groups as approximately 17,000 or 10,000, depending on whether diaspora populations are counted separately. For instance, the Korean people might be counted as a single group or divided into 51 diaspora groups depending on their global dispersion. While Koreans are generally considered evangelized, North Korea remains a distinct mission target due to its need for the Gospel.

The Joshua Project reports that, among the 17,000 identified people groups, approximately 7,000 are considered unreached. When using the 10,000 people group model, the number of UPGs is around 4,000. Groups with less than 2% evangelical Christians are generally classified as unreached, although thresholds like 1% or 3% are also used. For example, the International Mission Board (IMB) estimates approximately 3,000 UPGs based on these criteria.

2. Core Challenges in the UPG Mission Movement

A critical issue remains the reassignment of missionaries to areas where the Gospel is most urgently needed. Currently, the majority of missionaries are stationed in regions that have already been evangelized, underscoring the need for laborers in the frontier fields. The 2024 Lausanne Conference data continue to highlight the pressing necessity for missions among people groups with minimal Gospel access.

According to the chart above, most missionaries serve in already evangelized areas, with only 3.3% working among UPGs.

3. Shifting Leadership in Global Missions: The Global South

Since the early 21st century, particularly following the 9/11 attacks, leadership in global missions has shifted significantly to non-Western churches. After nearly 2,000 years of Western European Christian dominance, leadership has now fully transitioned to Asia, Latin America, and Africa. This shift is evident in the locations of the Lausanne Conferences: after the 1st Conference (Switzerland), subsequent conferences were held in the Philippines, South Africa, and now South Korea, reflecting this transformation.

Philip Jenkins, in The Next Christendom, predicts that by 2025, 50% of Christians will live in Africa and Latin America, with 17% in Asia. This shift has profound implications for global missions. As a Christian leader stated during the 3rd Lausanne Conference, “Missions are now going from everywhere to everywhere.”

Latin America, through the 1987 COMIBAM (Ibero-American Missionary Congress), emerged as a missionary powerhouse. Luis Bush, its inaugural leader, declared, “Latin America has been a mission field, but now we are a mission force.” This dynamic is expected to grow, making Latin America a vital resource in global missions.

4. God’s Sovereign Plan for Global Missions in the 21st Century

Amidst rapid globalization, the deployment of missionaries to UPGs remains a critical task. However, God is already sending His Church as witnesses worldwide. Short-term mission teams and one-year missionary programs provide diverse opportunities for the Church to engage in global mission fields.

Meanwhile, international migration and refugee movements carry significant spiritual implications. Refugees from Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and Palestine, along with the Filipino and African diasporas, are dispersed globally. Many of these groups now live in environments where they are freer to explore and embrace the Gospel without the societal persecution they might face in their home countries.

Filipino and African diasporas are often Christian, planting churches and fostering worship wherever they settle. With proper guidance and encouragement, these communities can become conduits for spreading the Gospel to unreached areas.

Traditional mission efforts remain essential, but God is also working in new and unexpected ways. Over the past two decades, the concept of "missions from everywhere to everywhere" has reshaped global missions. The 4th Lausanne Conference’s State of the Great Commission Report explores this through the lens of "polycentric mission movements."

Joseph’s journey to Egypt—though initiated by his brothers' wrongdoing—was ultimately used by God to save His people. Likewise, the global Church must recognize God’s sovereign hand in all circumstances, faithfully participating in His redemptive plan.

Conclusion 

Despite changing times, some truths remain unshaken: all people need the gospel, the gospel itself does not change, and Jesus Christ’s command to proclaim the gospel to all nations endures. 

“Despite all changes in history, some truths remain unchanged: all people need the Gospel, the Gospel itself is unchanging, and Christ’s command to preach the Gospel to all the world endures.” – Billy Graham