Unreached People Groups and Mission Statistics: A New Approach Beyond National Borders

Counting People Groups by Country vs. Counting People Groups Without National Borders: Which Approach Is More Effective?

 Joseph Kwon

Editorial Board Member

Matthew 28:18-20: "Then Jesus came to them and said, ‘All authority in heaven and on earth has been given to me. Therefore go and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and teaching them to obey everything I have commanded you. And surely I am with you always, to the very end of the age.’”

This is the Great Commission that Jesus commanded His disciples about 2,000 years ago. Over the past two millennia, people have interpreted and carried out this command in various ways. However, fundamentally, the Great Commission to reach all nations continues to be pursued. Since the 1989 Second Lausanne Congress, global evangelization statistics have underscored the importance of focusing on unreached peoples. Consequently, mission strategies targeting unreached people groups (UPGs) have emerged, prioritizing not just the increase of evangelization rates but ensuring that all nations hear the gospel of the Kingdom. Over the past 200 years, the proportion of Christians in the world population has remained relatively stable. According to the Pew Research Center(2011)’s Global Christianity report, the percentage of Christians in the global population has consistently ranged between 32% and 35% over the past century, despite regional fluctuations.

This presents several important implications. Many churches have focused on increasing evangelization rates within their communities, dedicating significant resources and energy to evangelistic efforts and church growth. While this zeal for evangelism is essential, history shows that, over time, evangelization rates in already reached areas tend to decline. If churches had solely concentrated on local evangelization efforts, global evangelization rates might have decreased. However, for the past 100 years, the global Church has continuously invested in world missions. This has resulted in the spread of the gospel to unreached regions, where rapid growth has taken place, helping to maintain a stable global evangelization rate.

Thus, from a global perspective, while passionate evangelism within local communities is crucial, it must be accompanied by world missions—especially missions targeting unreached areas. Christian history over the past century confirms the importance of balancing local evangelization with outreach to the unreached.

A graph illustrating the global population increase alongside the consistent 30% Christian proportion would show how the gospel has expanded worldwide beyond its original Western stronghold. The graph would also highlight that while the Christian population in the West has declined, the rapid growth in newly reached areas has maintained the global Christian percentage.

For the past 35 years, the Joshua Project has provided detailed information on unreached people groups, updating its statistics in response to the evolving mission landscape. Recently, as global migration has increased, new statistical methodologies have been proposed to complement existing data, enabling the global Church to gain a clearer understanding of the status of unreached people groups. Below is an introduction to the new statistical method proposed by the Joshua Project (2025).

Traditional vs. New Statistical Approaches to Unreached People Groups

The traditional method for counting unreached people groups has been to count them by country. This method treats the same ethnic group residing in different countries as separate groups. For example, the Bambara people in Mali are considered a distinct people group. If the Bambara people are present in 12 different countries, they are counted as 12 separate groups. Using this approach, the total number of people groups (People Groups In Countries, PGIC) is 17,280, with 7,189 classified as unreached.

A newly proposed method disregards national borders when counting people groups. In this approach, an ethnic group spread across multiple countries is counted as a single entity. For example, the Bambara people, regardless of whether they reside in 12 different countries, are counted as one group. Using this method, the total number of people groups (People Groups Across Countries, PGAC) is 10,296, with 4,420 classified as unreached.

Comparison of PGIC and PGAC Approaches

Advantages of PGIC (People Groups In Countries):

1. Familiar methodology that minimizes confusion.

2. Easier comparison with past people group lists.

Disadvantages of PGIC:

1. Every new migrant group results in additional PGIC entries, inflating the list.

2. Unreached people group numbers may appear to be increasing, complicating goal-setting.

3. The division between homeland groups and diaspora groups can create a sense of disconnect.

4. As globalization and migration increase, geographical boundaries become less relevant.

Advantages of PGAC (People Groups Across Countries):

1. The number of people groups remains stable, as new PGAC entries are rarely added.

2. The issue of increasing unreached people groups is resolved, leading to clearer mission objectives.

3. It may be more biblically aligned, as Jesus’ Great Commission was given before modern national borders existed.

4. Greater consistency across various people group lists.

5. Emphasizes the connection between homeland and diaspora groups.

Disadvantages of PGAC:

1. May cause confusion when comparing with past statistics.

2. The definition of a "people group" becomes more ambiguous, as distinctions between PGIC and PGAC vary depending on the context.

3. Requires educating existing users on the new methodology.
   

Conclusion

In the past, the PGIC approach was the standard, but today, the PGAC approach may be more appropriate. However, since both methods have strengths and weaknesses, selecting the appropriate methodology depends on the specific purpose of analysis. While mission statistics enhance our objective understanding of the global mission field, they do not influence the heart of a disciple’s response to the Great Commission.

Two thousand years ago, when the evangelization rate was close to 0%, the disciples who first heard the Great Commission followed Jesus with unwavering devotion. Their love for the Lord and the overwhelming grace they had received propelled them to take the gospel to the nations without hesitation. Today, that same love for the Lord continues to burn in the hearts of His disciples. It compels them to go to the unreached people groups, no matter the cost, ensuring that the gospel reaches those who have never heard.

References Joshua Project (2025). https://www.joshuaproject.net/people_groups/counts

PewResearchCenter (2011). Global Christianity A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Christian Population. https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2011/12/Christianity-fullreport-web.pdf