Iranian Regime at the Brink — Is Spring Coming to Iran?

Yun Juel (Member of Persian Studies Association)

Captured Image from Protest Footage in Tehran

Escalating Protests and the Regime’s Double Game

Protests that began in late 2025 among market merchants in Tehran have now entered their third week. What started locally has spread nationwide and continues to intensify. In response, the Iranian regime’s crackdown has grown increasingly brutal. From the perspective of a minister who has served among the people for many years, the current situation starkly reveals the regime’s deep sense of crisis.On the streets, the death toll is rising amid an uncompromising use of force. Beneath the surface, however, active channels of communication with the United States are reportedly underway. This points to a dangerous balancing act by the regime as it seeks to maintain internal control while ensuring external survival.

America’s “Moral Justification” and “Pragmatic Calculation”

Many hope that U.S. intervention might bring democracy, freedom, and the restoration of human rights to Iran. Yet a sober look at international politics reminds us that states act not primarily to uphold moral justice, but to maximize their national interests. This is not unique to the United States; it is the realistic operating logic of all modern nation-states seeking survival and prosperity.While the Iranian regime’s brutality does provide Washington with a moral pretext for intervention, for the United States Iran is less an object of “liberation” than a security threat to be contained. Military pressure—such as the partial relocation of U.S. forces from bases in Qatar and evacuation orders for American citizens—appears driven less by concern for Iranian human rights and more by a pragmatic goal: forcing Tehran back to the negotiating table to neutralize the nuclear threat.

The Duet of “Posturing” and “Backchannel Talks”

President Trump recently remarked that Iran’s public messaging is completely different from the unofficial messages it sends privately. This suggests that while the regime projects strength domestically, it is simultaneously exploring negotiations—brandishing the nuclear card—in pursuit of regime survival.The sudden suspension of an impending execution of a man in his twenties may also be read as a regime-level “response” to U.S. warnings—a signal that Tehran does not wish to overturn the table entirely.At this juncture, the United States faces a strategic dilemma. While ensuring nuclear deterrence remains a non-negotiable security priority, America cannot easily abandon its identity as a global leader committed to human rights and democratic values. In seeking a point of maximum overlap between security interests and moral principles, the balance is nevertheless likely to tilt toward pragmatic security concerns.

The Possibility of a “Big Deal”: Nuclear Concessions for Regime Survival

If the flames of protest in Iran do not die down quickly, the regime’s most viable option may be to relinquish its nuclear ambitions—at least partially—in exchange for preserving the existing system of power. For the United States, this too could appear a more realistic choice than pursuing direct regime change, which would be costly, uncertain, and destabilizing.We must therefore face the cold realities of the international order with clear eyes. While the United States, as a global leader, may not wish to completely ignore the desperate humanitarian situation facing the Iranian people, it remains fundamentally a nation-state that prioritizes its own interests above all else.

Our Gaze and Our Prayers

Yet beyond the cold equations of geopolitics and power politics, we must not forget the people of Iran who continue to groan under oppression and live daily under the threat of death. Even if history moves according to the logic of power, our gaze toward that land must reflect the compassionate heart of God.Our God does not despise the orphan or the widow; He does not break a bruised reed or extinguish a smoldering wick. He is a God of mercy who hears the prayers of the Church and fulfills His promises. Therefore, by God’s ways and in God’s timing, we must remain watchful and persistent in prayer—asking that spring may come swiftly to the land of Iran.