The Impact of Trump’s Election on the Russia-Ukraine War
- mmihpedit
- Nov 28, 2024
- 4 min read
Updated: Dec 13, 2024
Jin-young Kim
Editorial Board Member
Contrary to predictions of a close race between the two candidates in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump’s victory turned out to be relatively smooth. As the president of the United States, a country playing a crucial role in the international order, has now been determined, the entire world is watching how the already chaotic global order may change following Trump’s win. Especially since the U.S. has been partially involved in both the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the intense Israel-Hamas war, the possibility is high that the pattern of U.S. involvement will shift significantly under Trump, who differs politically from the Biden administration. While the Biden administration supported Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war and cautioned Israel against excessive attacks on Hamas in the Israel-Hamas conflict, Trump has repeatedly expressed positions different from those of the Biden administration regarding both wars.
The Quick End to the Russia-Ukraine War?
Because the prolonged war has caused severe human and economic losses for both Russia and Ukraine, both sides may desire to end the war. Yet they cannot easily concede territory and agree to end the conflict because the territorial issue is not merely about land for either nation. The intensity of this war is rooted in historical backgrounds and the geopolitical positions of these two peoples.
Most Eastern European countries, including Ukraine, gained independence after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia considers Ukraine a fraternal nation with shared Slavic roots. When a pro-Western regime took power in Ukraine and pursued pro-Western policies, Russia, objecting to this shift, launched the war under the pretext of protecting pro-Russian Ukrainians who disagreed with the new direction. Ukraine’s attempt to join NATO was a direct trigger for the conflict and viewed by Russia as a grave threat, potentially isolating it geopolitically.
Already, NATO forces are deployed in most Eastern European countries to contain Russia. NATO troops are stationed in Estonia and Latvia, which share borders with Russia. Should Ukraine also join NATO and host NATO troops, Russia would be surrounded along most of its borders by hostile NATO forces.
Meanwhile, Ukraine felt threatened by Russia’s overt political interference and violation of its sovereignty. Tensions escalated when Russia annexed Crimea. The conflict then spread to Donbas in eastern Ukraine, leading to the Donbas War. From the war’s outbreak in spring 2014 until 2022, for eight years Ukraine’s government forces and pro-Russian separatist rebels have clashed. Against this backdrop, Ukraine pursued NATO membership to safeguard its sovereignty, prompting Russia’s invasion—thus igniting the Russia-Ukraine war.
From this perspective, both Ukraine and Russia chose war when each felt its national survival was threatened. Hence, even with severe human and material costs from the prolonged war, no quick end seems in sight. Both countries appear far from reaching a smooth ceasefire agreement.
However, Trump has repeatedly claimed during his campaign that he can end the Russia-Ukraine war immediately. While the Biden administration continued to aid Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump would likely halt support for Ukraine under his “America First” approach, aiming to preserve U.S. resources and prioritize U.S. interests.
Trump has never specified concrete measures for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. But, according to a Washington Post report on November 11, 2024, in his first call with Putin, Trump advised Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine and expressed his intention to quickly discuss a resolution to the Ukraine war.
It remains questionable whether the Russia-Ukraine war can indeed be swiftly ended. Trump’s desire to promptly end the war stems from his America First policy. Rather than supporting decisions that uphold certain values in international affairs, Trump rigorously protects U.S. resources and places U.S. economic and security interests above all else. Thus, Trump may push for a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine to end the war. He has signaled support for a deal allowing Russia to retain some occupied territories to achieve a ceasefire. However, from Ukraine’s standpoint—its territories already partially occupied—ceding occupied land to Russia to reach a truce seems difficult. Since the February 2022 invasion, Russia occupies about 20% of the territory recognized at Ukraine’s 1991 independence. In October’s ceasefire talks, President Zelensky declared, “No matter what path we take, we will not acknowledge that any occupied territory belongs to another country.” Ukraine also occupied Russia’s Kursk region in August. Russia demands that Ukraine withdraw from Kursk as a precondition for negotiations. In other words, for a workable ceasefire agreement, both Russia and Ukraine must abandon their claims to territories currently occupied by the other. But both sides are unlikely to agree to such conditions easily.
Meanwhile, ABC News reports that some within Ukraine hope Trump’s hardline approach could end the prolonged war. Particularly in eastern regions continuously losing territory, war-weariness is high, and a commander in that region said that even ceding some occupied territories to achieve a diplomatic truce or ceasefire may be the only way to end the current stalemate. There is also hope that if Putin refuses to negotiate a ceasefire, Trump might provide more weapons to Ukraine to force Russia to the negotiating table. The appointment of Mike Waltz, a Florida House Representative who strongly supported Ukraine during the war, as National Security Advisor, and Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State under Trump’s foreign policy team, has also been seen as a positive signal by some Ukrainians.
Whether the Russia-Ukraine war will soon end, as Trump insists, is still unknown. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is historically entrenched, making a swift ceasefire agreement unlikely. Nonetheless, Trump’s election could serve as a turning point in the current stalemate. One can only hope that, after so many tears and so much blood have been shed between Russia and Ukraine, peace and a truce come swiftly.
