Analysis of Israel's "New Middle East Order"

Joseph Kwon

Editorial Board Member

The current wars—Israel vs. Hamas, Israel vs. Hezbollah, Israel vs. Iran and its proxy organizations—are intensifying in scope, severity, and geographical reach throughout the entire Middle East. Amid numerous factors in the region—such as the Sunni-Shiite division in Islam, the clashes between Islamic fundamentalist terrorism and Islamic moderates, the subtle differences in stances and conflicting national interests of Middle Eastern states—Israel is presenting a new order and taking the initiative in waging this war.

Predicting the future of the Middle East is difficult, but it’s also important to understand the “new order” Israel proposes. Below is an opinion piece introduced by Israeli strategic advisor and member of the Deborah Forum, Lian Pollack-David, who contributed to mako.co.il (an Israeli broadcaster) in Hebrew. She has previously served as an advisor to the National Security Council and the Prime Minister’s Office.

Can Netanyahu Bring About a New Order?

Netanyahu’s recent UN speech and military actions suggest that achieving a “new order” in the Middle East involves fighting threats and pursuing diplomatic normalization.

September 27, 2024, will go down as one of the most remarkable days in Israel’s military legacy and the overall history of the Middle East. Immediately after the Israeli Prime Minister addressed the world’s most important stage, one of the greatest terrorists of our time (the leader of Hezbollah) was assassinated in a brilliant operation by the IDF and Israeli security forces.

Years of showmanship in speeches and threats to strike targets “well beyond Haifa” ended in flames on that Friday. All of this took place under the directives of Israel’s chief of staff, the defense minister, and the prime minister.

We can only imagine what lay behind this decision, made by the best risk management system available, ultimately coming down to one bold and daring choice. The IDF provided the opportunity, but it was the prime minister who had to “press the button.” Unlike past hesitations, this time he pressed it.

“New Order”—the name given to the operation. It’s hard not to connect this with the “curse and blessing” speech Netanyahu delivered at the UN just before. He presented two maps. In one hand, he held a map showing Iran and its proxies, illustrating Iran’s expansion and the severity of the threat to regional stability—this represented “the curse and terror.” In the other hand, he held a map that, after normalization with Saudi Arabia, would show changes in the Middle East— “the blessing and peace.” It was the same map he presented on the same stage a year ago. “Peace will turn the Middle East into paradise,” he said. “Between the curse of Iranian aggression and the blessing of reconciliation between Jews and Arabs, you must choose one.”

The two maps presented by the Prime Minister clearly showed the combination needed for a “new order”: eradicating the “curse” and building the “blessing.” Neither effort alone would suffice; a powerful combination of both is required.

For eleven months, Netanyahu has worked to eradicate the “curse,” but there’s been no clear progress in building the “blessing,” perhaps even regression. How does he plan to translate the optimistic map he has shown two years in a row into our everyday reality?

Netanyahu desires normalization (with Arab states) strongly. He wanted it before October 7, and he wants it even more afterward. In his Friday speech, he recognized the importance of moving toward the “new order” he yearns for, knowing that building the Abraham alliance of moderate states leading toward stability in the Middle East is key.

But before this optimistic map, as Netanyahu declared that Israel decided to pursue “the blessing” of peace and partnership with neighboring states, the UN hall was nearly empty, notably missing representatives from Saudi Arabia. It’s as if a cool diplomatic shower fell over him. Over the past year—or perhaps longer—a weak political touch accompanying Netanyahu came screaming out through those empty UN seats on Friday.

Netanyahu may still believe he can achieve normalization and expand the Abraham Accords without “paying a price” in Palestinian currency. In doing so, he could eat his Saudi cake and still maintain his political coalition in the Knesset. Perhaps before October 7, such an opportunity existed, but it no longer does, and that will not change. Netanyahu knows that normalization with Saudi Arabia is the path to the “new order,” but he ignores the core of the negotiations with Saudi: offering a political horizon for the Palestinians. No matter how you see it, that’s the formula.

The launch of Operation “Northern Arrow” was bold.

Deciding on Operation Northern Arrow was bold. Deciding to assassinate Nasrallah (the Hezbollah leader) was even bolder. Now is the time for bold leadership. Now is the time to continue hitting terrorism with military power. It is also time to use political power to build the future. Israel now faces a historic opportunity that can bring about a significant strategic change to strengthen its security in the Middle East for years to come.

Netanyahu has a once-in-a-lifetime chance to be remembered in the history books not as the man who presided over the horrific massacre of October 7 but as “Mr. New Order.” He very boldly pressed the button for “curse removal.” Will he have the courage to do what’s necessary to realize the “blessing”?