The sharp decline in Christianity throughout the Middle East since the 2011 Middle East democratic revolutions.

Joseph Kwon (Editorial Board Member)

The Middle East has been a region of continuous turbulence throughout modern history. Particularly since the 2011 Middle East Revolution, or Jasmine Revolution, there have been significant political, economic, and social changes. These changes have been driven by a complex mix of factors, including regime change, violent coups by Islamic fundamentalist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda, ethnic conflict, and resource constraints.

Amidst these massive changes, significant changes have occurred within the Islamic world's internal structures and value systems, but significant shifts have also occurred within the traditional Christian communities of the Middle East. Traditional Christian communities in the Middle East are overwhelmingly Catholic and Orthodox. As of 2025, the denominational distribution of Christians in the Middle East is estimated to be roughly 45–50% Eastern Orthodox, 40–45% Catholic, and 5–10% Protestant (Pew Research Center, 2025).

Moreover, the overall Christian population is declining rapidly. The percentage of Christians in the Middle East as a whole is projected to continue declining, from approximately 13.6% in 1910 to 4.2% in 2010 and to approximately 3.6% in 2025 (Lausanne Movement, 2024; Pew Research Center, 2025).

According to Open Doors (2025), Syria's Christian population has declined from 1.8 million in 2011 to approximately 579,000 today, a decline of approximately 32% (Open Doors, 2025a). Iraq's Christian population has plummeted from 1.5 million in 2003 to less than 200,000 today (Open Doors, 2025b). In the Palestinian territories (West Bank and Gaza), the Christian population has fallen from 11% in 1922 to approximately 1% today, with only about 600 remaining in the Gaza Strip (AP News, 2024). In Bethlehem, the Christian population plummeted from 86% in 1950 to 10% in 2017, and this figure is projected to further decline following the war and economic crisis of 2023-2024 (Reuters, 2024).

Photo source of the suicide bombing at a church in Damascus, Syria, June 2025. LOUAI BESHARA

In some areas of Syria, there are only seven elderly Christians left, and nationally, the Christian population has plummeted from 8% to 2% (Le Monde, 2024). According to data released on the 10th anniversary of the IS attack, the Christian community, which comprised around 10% of the total population before the war, has largely fled or emigrated, and in some rural areas, the Christian population has dwindled to less than half (AP News, 2024; The Australian, 2024). Furthermore, concerns are growing about new armed regimes, such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which currently dominates Syria, leading some experts to predict an uncertain future for Christian communities in the Middle East (The Australian, 2024).

Meanwhile, Lebanon has one of the highest Christian populations in the Middle East, but the influx of Syrian refugees and the economic crisis have seen the Christian population decline from 40% to around 33% (Pew Research Center, 2024; BBC Arabic, 2023).

Israel, on the other hand, is the only country in the Middle East with a growing Christian population, with about 187,000 Christians, or about 1.9% of the total population (All Israel News, 2025).

The Middle East is where humanity's major religions originated, and where their heritage coexists. This region has long been a scene of religious conflict and war. At the same time, it has also maintained a structure of interfaith coexistence, yet separation, for centuries. However, due to recent political turmoil, economic difficulties, and the spread of Islamic fundamentalism, the Christian communities that once lingered in the Middle East are rapidly disappearing.

At times like these, prayer and missionary attention for the Middle East are urgently needed.

References

1. Pew Research Center. (2025). *Religion in the Middle East and North Africa*.

2. Lausanne Movement. (2024). *Emigration of Christians from the Middle East*.

3. Pew Research Center. (2025). *Global Christianity Report*.

4. Pew Forum. (2015). *The future of world religions: Population growth projections, 2010–2050*. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/04/02/religious-projection-table

5. Open Doors. (2025). *World Watch List Report: Syria*. https://www.opendoors.org/en-US/persecution/countries/syria/

6. Open Doors. (2025). *World Watch List Report: Iraq*. https://www.opendoors.org/en-US/persecution/countries/iraq/

7. AP News. (2024, July). Syria's Christians mark a decade since IS attacks. https://apnews.com

8. Reuters. (2024, December). Christian families quit West Bank. https://www.reuters.com

9. Le Monde. (2024, September). Syria's Christianity: A disappearing community. https://www.lemonde.fr

10. The Australian. (2024). Christianity under greater threat in liberated Syria. https://www.theaustralian.com.au

11. Pew Research Center. (2024). *Lebanon religious demographics*.

12. BBC Arabic. (2023). Lebanon's religious balance post-crisis. https://www.bbc.com/arabic

13. All Israel News. (2025, January). Christian population grows in Israel. https://allisrael.com